Socio-economic growth and the eco-social crisis: state of the matter
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/arbor.2024.812.2600Keywords:
growth, sustainability, ecological transition, socio-economic collapse, state of the matterAbstract
Based on an extensive review of the essential and relevant scientific-technical literature on the genesis and implications of the current eco-social crisis, in this article we develop a transdisciplinary and synthetic description of the state of the matter regarding the sustainability crisis. To this end, after the introduction and a brief description of the institutional socio-political framework from which an attempt has been made to integrate economic growth with sustainability, we first examine the main costs, in terms of energy, ecosystems and climate, borne to date by the dominant paradigm of economic growth, to then review the main technological limits to the continuity of this dominant paradigm of continuous economic growth foreseen by science and technology. A review of the huge accumulation of scientific-technical evidence leads us, finally, to a conclusion on the incompatibility of the dominant socioeconomic paradigm, based on continuous growth, with all forms of ecological sustainability, and on the need for a profound and radical rethinking of this dominant socioeconomic paradigm as the most logical and best way, if not now the only one, to face the enormous challenges that as a civilization humanity faces.
Downloads
References
Almenar, Ricardo (2012). El fin de la expansión. Del mundo-océano sin límites al mundo-isla. Barcelona: Icaria.
Arrhenius, Svante (1896). On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground. Philosophical Magazine, 41, 237-276.
Banerjee, Subhabrata B. (2008). Necrocapitalism. Organization Studies, 29(12), 1541-1563.
Barnosky, Anthony D. et al. (2012). Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature, 486, 52-58.
Bordera, Juan y Prieto, Fernando (2021). El IPCC considera que el decrecimiento es clave para mitigar el cambio climático. ctxt Contexto y Acción, 275. Disponible en: https://ctxt.es/es/20210801/Politica/36900/IPCC-cambio-climatico-colapso-medioambiental-decrecimiento.htm
Bordera, Juan et al. (2022). Sobre cómo los ‘lobbies’ diluyen el informe climático más importante del mundo. ctxt Contexto y Acción, 283. Disponible en: https://ctxt.es/es/20220401/Firmas/39348/ipcc-juan-bordera-cambio-climatico-combustibles-fosiles-decrecimiento.htm
Brandt, Adam R. (2017). How does energy resource depletion affect prosperity? Mathematics of a minimum energy return on investment (EROI). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 2.
Burgoyne, Anthony (2010). Charlton and the Scientific Bubble. Philosophy of Science. Disponible en: http://anthonyburgoyne.com/2010/07/08/charlton-and-the-scientific-bubble/
Campbell, Colin. J. y Laherrère, Jean H. (1998). The end of cheap oil. Scientific American, 278(3), 78-83. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26057708
Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo et al. (2014). Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach. Energy, 77(1), 641–666.
Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo; de Castro, Carlos y González, Luis J. M. (2019). Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and material requirements in scenarios of global transition to renewable energies. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26(7).
Charlton, Bruce (7 de julio de 2010). Growth and the expectation of growth in scientific knowledge. Bruce Charlton's Notions. Disponible en: http://charltonteaching.blogspot.com/2010/07/growth-and-expectation-of-growth-in.html
Cleveland, Cutler J.; Constanza, Robert; Hall, Charles A. S. y Kaufmann, Robert (1984). Energy and the US economy: A biophysical perspective. Science, 225(4665), 890–897.
D’Alessandro, Simone; Cieplinski, André; Distefano, Tiziano y Dittmer, Kristofer (2020). Feasible alternatives to green growth. Nature Sustainability, 3, 329-335.
DeLong, Bradford J. (2022). Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century. New York: Basic Books.
De Castro, Carlos; Mediavilla, Margarita; Miguel, Luis Javier y Frechoso, Fernando (2011). Global wind power potential: Physical and technological limits. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6677-6682.
Diederen, André M. (2009). Metal minerals scarcity: A call for managed austerity and the elements of hope. TNO Defence, Security and Safety. Disponible en:http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9fe525ac-3ca2-4bef-95e2-279baaa5f055
Ecologistas en Acción (2021). Los conceptos que nos moldean. Una entrevista con José Manuel Naredo. Revista Nº 107. Disponible en: https://www.ecologistasenaccion.org/163412/los-conceptos-que-nos-moldean-una-entrevista-con-jose-manuel-naredo/
EIA (2008). Annual Energy Outlook 2008. With Projections to 2030. Washington DC: EIA. Disponible en: https://www.globalbioenergy.org/uploads/media/0806_EIA_-_Annual_Energy_Outlook_2008.pdf
EIA (2021). Annual Energy Outlook 2021. Washington DC: EIA.
Fernández, Ramón y González, Luis (2018). En la espiral de la energía, 2ª ed. Madrid: Libros en Acción.
Fourier, Jean-Baptiste Joseph (1824). Remarques générales sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires. Annales de Chimie et de Physique, 27, 136-167
Fourier, Jean-Baptiste Joseph (1827). Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires. Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences, 7, 569-604.
García-Olivares, Antonio (2016). Energy for a sustainable post-carbon society. Scientia Marina, 80(S1), 257-268.
García-Olivares, Antonio y Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim (2015). Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 90 B, 587-598.
Geim, Andre (5 de febrero de 2013). Be afraid, very afraid, of the tech crises. Financial Times. Disponible en: https://www.ft.com/content/ad8e9df0-6faa-11e2-956b-00144feab49a
Graeber, David y Wengrow, David (2021). The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity. London: Penguin Books.
Haberl, Helmut et al. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
Hall, Charles A. S. et al. (2001). The Need to Reintegrate the Natural Sciences with Economics. BioScience, 51(8), 663-673.
Hall, Charles A. S.; Balogh, Stephen y Murphy, David J. R. (2009). What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?Energies, 2(1), 25-47.
Hall, Charles A. S.; Lambert, Jessica G. y Balogh, Stephen (2014). EROI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy Policy, 64, 141-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049
Hamilton, James D. (2009). Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 215-283. Disponible en:https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/causes-and-consequences-of-the-oil-shock-of-2007-08/.
Hubbert, Marion K. (1956). Nuclear Energy and The Fossil Fuels. Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, 95. Houston.
Huebner, Jonathan (2005). A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72(8), 980-986.
IEA (2010). World Energy Outlook 2010. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2010
IEA (2013). World Energy Outlook 2013. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2013
IEA (2018). World Energy Outlook 2018. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2018
IEA (2020). World Energy Outlook 2020. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020
IEA (2021a). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions
IEA (2021b). World Energy Outlook 2021. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021
IEA (2022). World Energy Outlook 2022. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022
IEA (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023
ILO, Walk Free y IOM (2022). Global Estimates of Modern Slavery: Forced Labour and Forced Marriage. International Labour Organization, Walk Free y International Organization for Migration. Geneva. Disponible en: https://www.ilo.org/publications/major-publications/global-estimates-modern-slavery-forced-labour-and-forced-marriage
IPCC (2007). AR4 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2007. Geneva: IPCC. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/
IPCC (2014). AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014. Geneva: IPCC. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
IPCC (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. Geneva: IPCC. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Keyßer, Lorenz T. y Lenzen, Manfred (2021). 1.5°C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. Nature Communications, 12, 2676.
Martin, Chris (5 de febrero de 2020). Wind Turbine Blades Can’t Be Recycled, So They’re Piling Up in Landfills. Bloomberg Green. Disponible en: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turbine-blades-can-t-be-recycled-so-they-re-piling-up-in-landfills
Meadows, Donella H.; Meadows, Dennis L.; Randers, Jørgen y Behrens III, William W. (1972). The Limits to Growth, A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books.
Meadows, Donella H.; Randers, Jørgen y Meadows, Dennis L. (1992). Más allá de los límites del crecimiento. Madrid: El País - Aguilar.
Meadows, Donella H.; Randers, Jørgen y Meadows, Dennis L. (2006). Los límites del crecimiento 30 años después. Barcelona: Galaxia Gutenberg - Círculo de Lectores.
Michaux, Simon P. (2021). The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth. Geological Survey of Finland - GTK. Disponible en:https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/16_2021.pdf
Morgan, Mary S. y Bach, Maria (2018). Measuring Development – from the UN’s perspective. History of Political Economy, 50, 193-210.
Murphy, Thomas W. (12 de julio de 2011). Galactic-Scale Energy. Do the Math. Disponible en: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/
Murphy, Thomas W. (18 de mayo de 2021). Why Worry About Collapse? Do the Math. Disponible en: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2021/05/why-worry-about-collapse/
Murphy, Thomas W. (2022). Limits to economic growth. Nature Physics, 18, 844-847. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6
Murray, James y King, David (2012). Oil’s tipping point has passed. Nature, 481, 433-435.
Naredo, José Manuel (1996). Sobre el origen, el uso y el contenido del término ‘sostenible’. Documentación Social, 102, 129-148.
Naredo, José Manuel (2015). Raíces económicas del deterioro ecológico y social. Más allá de los dogmas. Madrid: Siglo XXI de España.
Naredo, José Manuel y Gutiérrez, Andrés (Eds.) (2005). La incidencia de la especie humana sobre la faz de la Tierra (1955-2005). Granada: Universidad de Granada - Fundación César Manrique.
Newman, Rebeca y Noy, Ilan (2023). The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change. Nature Communications, 14, 6103.
Nordhaus, William y Boyer, Joseph (1999). Roll the DICE Again: Economic Models of Global Warming. Massachusetts: MIT Press.
Nordhaus, William (2017). Revisiting the social cost of carbon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114(7), 1518–1523.
ONU - Brundtland Commission (1987). Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Disponible en: https://undocs.org/en/A/42/427
Prieto, Pedro A. y Hall, Charles A. S. (2013). Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution. The Energy Return on Investment. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Pulido-Sanchez, Daniel et al. (2021). Analysis of the material requirements of global electrical mobility. DYNA, 96(2), 207-213.
Reid, Walter V. et al. (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Synthesis. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, United Nations Organization. Disponible en: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf
Ripple, William J. et al. (2020). World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency. BioScience, 70(1), 8-12.
Ripple, William J. et al. (2021). World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021. BioScience, 71(9), 894-898.
Ripple, William J. et al. (2023). The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory. BioScience, 73(12), 841-850.
Rowlands, Mark (2021). World on Fire: Humans, Animals, and the Future of the Planet. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Schandl, Heinz et al. (2016). Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: scenarios for energy use, materials use and carbon emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 132, 45-56.
Steffen, Will et al. (2004). Global Change and the Earth System. A Planet Under Pressure. New York: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Steffen, Will et al. (2015). The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review, 2(1), 81-98.
Tainter, Joseph A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Turner, Graham (2014). Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data. Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Research Paper No. 4. The University of Melbourne. Disponible en: https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
Tyndall, John (1861). The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 151, 1–36. http://www.jstor.org/stable/108724
United States Congress House (1973). Energy reorganization act of 1973: Hearings, Ninety-third Congress, first session, on H.R. 11510. Disponible en: https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/CHRG-93hhrg25108O/context
UNDP (2014). Human Development Report. Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. United Nations Development Program. Disponible en: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-report-2014
UNESCO-WWAP (2003). Water for People, Water for Life. Executive Summary of the UN World Water Development Report. Paris: UNESCO. Disponible en: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/WWDR_english_129556e.pdf
Vadén, Tere et al. (2020a). Raising the bar: on the type, size and timeline of a ‘successful’ decoupling. Environmental Politics, 30(3), 462-476.
Vadén, Tere et al. (2020b).Decoupling for ecological sustainability: A categorization and review of research literature. Environmental Science & Policy, 112, 236-244.
Valero, Alicia (2008). Exergy evolution of the mineral capital on Earth. Ph. D. Thesis, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Centro Politécnico Superior, University of Zaragoza.
Veron, John Edward Norwood (2008). Mass extinctions and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs, 27, 459-472.
Wackernagel, Mathis et al. (2002). Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 99(14), 9266-9271.
WalkFree (2023). The Global Slavery Index 2023. Minderoo Foundation. Disponible en: https://walkfree.org/global-slavery-index
Ward, James D. et al. (2016). Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible? PLOS ONE.
Weaber, Warren (1948). Science and complexity. American Scientist, 36(4), 536-544.
Welzer, Harald (2011). Guerras climáticas. Por qué mataremos (y nos matarán) en el siglo XXI. Buenos Aires: Katz Editores.
Worm, Boris et al. (2006). Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science, 314(5800), 787-790.
Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl y Stouffer, Ronald (2018). Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in 2014–2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 1069–1078.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
© CSIC. Manuscripts published in both the printed and online versions of this Journal are the property of Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, and quoting this source is a requirement for any partial or full reproduction.
All contents of this electronic edition, except where otherwise noted, are distributed under a “Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International” (CC BY 4.0) License. You may read the basic information and the legal text of the license. The indication of the CC BY 4.0 License must be expressly stated in this way when necessary.
Self-archiving in repositories, personal webpages or similar, of any version other than the published by the Editor, is not allowed.
