Crecimiento socioeconómico y crisis ecosocial: estado de la cuestión

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/arbor.2024.812.2600

Palabras clave:

crecimiento, sostenibilidad, transición ecológica, colapso socioeconómico, estado de la cuestión

Resumen


A partir de una extensa revisión de las referencias científico-técnicas esenciales y relevantes sobre la génesis y las implicaciones de la actual crisis ecosocial, en este artículo desarrollamos una descripción transdisciplinar y sintética del estado de la cuestión sobre la crisis de sostenibilidad. Para ello, tras la introducción y somera descripción del marco sociopolítico institucional desde el que se ha tratado de gestionar la integración del crecimiento económico con la sostenibilidad, en primer lugar examinamos los principales costes, en términos energéticos, ecosistémicos y climáticos, acarreados hasta la actualidad por el paradigma dominante de crecimiento económico, para, a continuación, revisar los principales límites tecnológicos que desde la ciencia y la técnica se vislumbran a la continuidad de dicho paradigma dominante de crecimiento económico continuo. La revisión del ingente cúmulo de evidencia científico-técnica nos lleva, finalmente, a concluir sobre la incompatibilidad del paradigma socioeconómico dominante, basado en el crecimiento continuo, con toda forma de sostenibilidad ecológica, y sobre la necesidad de un profundo y radical replanteamiento de dicho paradigma socioeconómico dominante como la más lógica y mejor vía, si no ya la única, para afrontar los magníficos retos a los que como civilización se enfrenta la Humanidad.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Almenar, Ricardo (2012). El fin de la expansión. Del mundo-océano sin límites al mundo-isla. Barcelona: Icaria.

Arrhenius, Svante (1896). On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground. Philosophical Magazine, 41, 237-276. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786449608620846

Banerjee, Subhabrata B. (2008). Necrocapitalism. Organization Studies, 29(12), 1541-1563. https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840607096386

Barnosky, Anthony D. et al. (2012). Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature, 486, 52-58. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11018 PMid:22678279

Bordera, Juan y Prieto, Fernando (2021). El IPCC considera que el decrecimiento es clave para mitigar el cambio climático. ctxt Contexto y Acción, 275. Disponible en: https://ctxt.es/es/20210801/Politica/36900/IPCC-cambio-climatico-colapso-medioambiental-decrecimiento.htm

Bordera, Juan et al. (2022). Sobre cómo los 'lobbies' diluyen el informe climático más importante del mundo. ctxt Contexto y Acción, 283. Disponible en: https://ctxt.es/es/20220401/Firmas/39348/ipcc-juan-bordera-cambio-climatico-combustibles-fosiles-decrecimiento.htm

Brandt, Adam R. (2017). How does energy resource depletion affect prosperity? Mathematics of a minimum energy return on investment (EROI). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-017-0019-y

Burgoyne, Anthony (2010). Charlton and the Scientific Bubble. Philosophy of Science. Disponible en: http://anthonyburgoyne.com/2010/07/08/charlton-and-the-scientific-bubble/

Campbell, Colin. J. y Laherrère, Jean H. (1998). The end of cheap oil. Scientific American, 278(3), 78-83. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26057708 https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0398-78

Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo et al. (2014). Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach. Energy, 77(1), 641-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063

Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo; de Castro, Carlos y González, Luis J. M. (2019). Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and material requirements in scenarios of global transition to renewable energies. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100399

Charlton, Bruce (7 de julio de 2010). Growth and the expectation of growth in scientific knowledge. Bruce Charlton's Notions. Disponible en: http://charltonteaching.blogspot.com/2010/07/growth-and-expectation-of-growth-in.html

Cleveland, Cutler J.; Constanza, Robert; Hall, Charles A. S. y Kaufmann, Robert (1984). Energy and the US economy: A biophysical perspective. Science, 225(4665), 890-897. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.225.4665.890 PMid:17779848

D'Alessandro, Simone; Cieplinski, André; Distefano, Tiziano y Dittmer, Kristofer (2020). Feasible alternatives to green growth. Nature Sustainability, 3, 329-335. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0484-y

DeLong, Bradford J. (2022). Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century. New York: Basic Books.

De Castro, Carlos; Mediavilla, Margarita; Miguel, Luis Javier y Frechoso, Fernando (2011). Global wind power potential: Physical and technological limits. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6677-6682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.027

Diederen, André M. (2009). Metal minerals scarcity: A call for managed austerity and the elements of hope. TNO Defence, Security and Safety. Disponible en:http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9fe525ac-3ca2-4bef-95e2-279baaa5f055

Ecologistas en Acción (2021). Los conceptos que nos moldean. Una entrevista con José Manuel Naredo. Revista Nº 107. Disponible en: https://www.ecologistasenaccion.org/163412/los-conceptos-que-nos-moldean-una-entrevista-con-jose-manuel-naredo/

EIA (2008). Annual Energy Outlook 2008. With Projections to 2030. Washington DC: EIA. Disponible en: https://www.globalbioenergy.org/uploads/media/0806_EIA_-_Annual_Energy_Outlook_2008.pdf

EIA (2021). Annual Energy Outlook 2021. Washington DC: EIA.

Fernández, Ramón y González, Luis (2018). En la espiral de la energía, 2ª ed. Madrid: Libros en Acción.

Fourier, Jean-Baptiste Joseph (1824). Remarques générales sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires. Annales de Chimie et de Physique, 27, 136-167

Fourier, Jean-Baptiste Joseph (1827). Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires. Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences, 7, 569-604.

García-Olivares, Antonio (2016). Energy for a sustainable post-carbon society. Scientia Marina, 80(S1), 257-268. https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.04295.12A

García-Olivares, Antonio y Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim (2015). Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 90 B, 587-598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013

Geim, Andre (5 de febrero de 2013). Be afraid, very afraid, of the tech crises. Financial Times. Disponible en: https://www.ft.com/content/ad8e9df0-6faa-11e2-956b-00144feab49a

Graeber, David y Wengrow, David (2021). The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity. London: Penguin Books.

Haberl, Helmut et al. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a

Hall, Charles A. S. et al. (2001). The Need to Reintegrate the Natural Sciences with Economics. BioScience, 51(8), 663-673. https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0663:TNTRTN]2.0.CO;2

Hall, Charles A. S.; Balogh, Stephen y Murphy, David J. R. (2009). What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?Energies, 2(1), 25-47. https://doi.org/10.3390/en20100025

Hall, Charles A. S.; Lambert, Jessica G. y Balogh, Stephen (2014). EROI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy Policy, 64, 141-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049

Hamilton, James D. (2009). Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 215-283. Disponible en:https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/causes-and-consequences-of-the-oil-shock-of-2007-08/. https://doi.org/10.3386/w15002

Hubbert, Marion K. (1956). Nuclear Energy and The Fossil Fuels. Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, 95. Houston.

Huebner, Jonathan (2005). A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72(8), 980-986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.01.003

IEA (2010). World Energy Outlook 2010. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2010

IEA (2013). World Energy Outlook 2013. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2013

IEA (2018). World Energy Outlook 2018. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2018

IEA (2020). World Energy Outlook 2020. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020

IEA (2021a). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions

IEA (2021b). World Energy Outlook 2021. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021

IEA (2022). World Energy Outlook 2022. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022

IEA (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. Paris: IEA. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023

ILO, Walk Free y IOM (2022). Global Estimates of Modern Slavery: Forced Labour and Forced Marriage. International Labour Organization, Walk Free y International Organization for Migration. Geneva. Disponible en: https://www.ilo.org/publications/major-publications/global-estimates-modern-slavery-forced-labour-and-forced-marriage

IPCC (2007). AR4 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2007. Geneva: IPCC. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/

IPCC (2014). AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014. Geneva: IPCC. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

IPCC (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. Geneva: IPCC. Disponible en: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

Keyßer, Lorenz T. y Lenzen, Manfred (2021). 1.5°C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. Nature Communications, 12, 2676. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9 PMid:33976156 PMCid:PMC8113441

Martin, Chris (5 de febrero de 2020). Wind Turbine Blades Can't Be Recycled, So They're Piling Up in Landfills. Bloomberg Green. Disponible en: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turbine-blades-can-t-be-recycled-so-they-re-piling-up-in-landfills

Meadows, Donella H.; Meadows, Dennis L.; Randers, Jørgen y Behrens III, William W. (1972). The Limits to Growth, A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books. https://doi.org/10.1349/ddlp.1

Meadows, Donella H.; Randers, Jørgen y Meadows, Dennis L. (1992). Más allá de los límites del crecimiento. Madrid: El País - Aguilar.

Meadows, Donella H.; Randers, Jørgen y Meadows, Dennis L. (2006). Los límites del crecimiento 30 años después. Barcelona: Galaxia Gutenberg - Círculo de Lectores.

Michaux, Simon P. (2021). The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth. Geological Survey of Finland - GTK. Disponible en:https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/16_2021.pdf

Morgan, Mary S. y Bach, Maria (2018). Measuring Development - from the UN's perspective. History of Political Economy, 50, 193-210. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7033932

Murphy, Thomas W. (12 de julio de 2011). Galactic-Scale Energy. Do the Math. Disponible en: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/

Murphy, Thomas W. (18 de mayo de 2021). Why Worry About Collapse? Do the Math. Disponible en: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2021/05/why-worry-about-collapse/

Murphy, Thomas W. (2022). Limits to economic growth. Nature Physics, 18, 844-847. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6

Murray, James y King, David (2012). Oil's tipping point has passed. Nature, 481, 433-435. https://doi.org/10.1038/481433a PMid:22281577

Naredo, José Manuel (1996). Sobre el origen, el uso y el contenido del término 'sostenible'. Documentación Social, 102, 129-148.

Naredo, José Manuel (2015). Raíces económicas del deterioro ecológico y social. Más allá de los dogmas. Madrid: Siglo XXI de España.

Naredo, José Manuel y Gutiérrez, Andrés (Eds.) (2005). La incidencia de la especie humana sobre la faz de la Tierra (1955-2005). Granada: Universidad de Granada - Fundación César Manrique.

Newman, Rebeca y Noy, Ilan (2023). The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change. Nature Communications, 14, 6103. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41888-1 PMid:37775690 PMCid:PMC10541421

Nordhaus, William y Boyer, Joseph (1999). Roll the DICE Again: Economic Models of Global Warming. Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Nordhaus, William (2017). Revisiting the social cost of carbon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114(7), 1518-1523. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1609244114 PMid:28143934 PMCid:PMC5321009

ONU - Brundtland Commission (1987). Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Disponible en: https://undocs.org/en/A/42/427

Prieto, Pedro A. y Hall, Charles A. S. (2013). Spain's Photovoltaic Revolution. The Energy Return on Investment. New York: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9437-0

Pulido-Sanchez, Daniel et al. (2021). Analysis of the material requirements of global electrical mobility. DYNA, 96(2), 207-213. https://doi.org/10.6036/9893

Reid, Walter V. et al. (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Synthesis. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, United Nations Organization. Disponible en: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf

Ripple, William J. et al. (2020). World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency. BioScience, 70(1), 8-12. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz152

Ripple, William J. et al. (2021). World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021. BioScience, 71(9), 894-898. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biab079

Ripple, William J. et al. (2023). The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory. BioScience, 73(12), 841-850. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biad080

Rowlands, Mark (2021). World on Fire: Humans, Animals, and the Future of the Planet. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197541890.001.0001

Schandl, Heinz et al. (2016). Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: scenarios for energy use, materials use and carbon emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 132, 45-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.100

Steffen, Will et al. (2004). Global Change and the Earth System. A Planet Under Pressure. New York: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Steffen, Will et al. (2015). The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review, 2(1), 81-98. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785

Tainter, Joseph A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Turner, Graham (2014). Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data. Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Research Paper No. 4. The University of Melbourne. Disponible en: https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf

Tyndall, John (1861). The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 151, 1-36. http://www.jstor.org/stable/108724 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1861.0001

United States Congress House (1973). Energy reorganization act of 1973: Hearings, Ninety-third Congress, first session, on H.R. 11510. Disponible en: https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/CHRG-93hhrg25108O/context

UNDP (2014). Human Development Report. Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. United Nations Development Program. Disponible en: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-report-2014

UNESCO-WWAP (2003). Water for People, Water for Life. Executive Summary of the UN World Water Development Report. Paris: UNESCO. Disponible en: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/WWDR_english_129556e.pdf

Vadén, Tere et al. (2020a). Raising the bar: on the type, size and timeline of a 'successful' decoupling. Environmental Politics, 30(3), 462-476. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2020.1783951

Vadén, Tere et al. (2020b).Decoupling for ecological sustainability: A categorization and review of research literature. Environmental Science & Policy, 112, 236-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.06.016 PMid:32834777 PMCid:PMC7330600

Valero, Alicia (2008). Exergy evolution of the mineral capital on Earth. Ph. D. Thesis, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Centro Politécnico Superior, University of Zaragoza.

Veron, John Edward Norwood (2008). Mass extinctions and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs, 27, 459-472. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-008-0381-8

Wackernagel, Mathis et al. (2002). Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 99(14), 9266-9271. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.142033699 PMid:12089326 PMCid:PMC123129

WalkFree (2023). The Global Slavery Index 2023. Minderoo Foundation. Disponible en: https://walkfree.org/global-slavery-index

Ward, James D. et al. (2016). Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible? PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164733 PMid:27741300 PMCid:PMC5065220

Weaber, Warren (1948). Science and complexity. American Scientist, 36(4), 536-544. https://doi.org/10.14219/jada.archive.1948.0155

Welzer, Harald (2011). Guerras climáticas. Por qué mataremos (y nos matarán) en el siglo XXI. Buenos Aires: Katz Editores.

Worm, Boris et al. (2006). Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science, 314(5800), 787-790. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132294 PMid:17082450

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl y Stouffer, Ronald (2018). Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in 2014-2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 1069-1078. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076500

Publicado

2024-12-13

Cómo citar

Urra Urbieta, J. A. (2024). Crecimiento socioeconómico y crisis ecosocial: estado de la cuestión. Arbor, 200(812), 2600. https://doi.org/10.3989/arbor.2024.812.2600

Número

Sección

Artículos